Modelling the effect of horizontal and vertical transmissions of HIV infection with efficient control strategies

Abstract

In this paper a mathematical model is developed to study the transmission dynamics of HIV infection and the effect of horizontal and vertical transmission in Turkey is analyzed. Model is fitted with the use of confirmed HIV cases of both vertical and horizontal transmission from 2011 to 2018. Using the next generation operator the basic reproduction number of the model is obtained, which shows whether the disease persists or dies out in time. Further analysis shows that the model is locally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number R₀ < 1 and is unstable when R₀ > 1. The most sensitive parameters efficient for the control of the infection are obtained using forward normalized sensitivity index. Lastly, the results are obtained with the aid of mesh and contour plots, which show that decreasing the values of transmission rate diseases induced mortality rates and progression rates play a significant role in controlling the spread of HIV transmission.